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  • Writer's pictureTim

Somewhere In Between

Sometimes when the financial press discusses the Federal reserve, it’s as if one conjures an image of economic geniuses in flowing white robes walking among the masses waiving confidently just before they ascend to Olympus to dispense their wisdom. For me, and I can’t help it, I simultaneously picture a group of Friday night college kids stuffed in a car drinking bad wine, eating cheese popcorn and swerving around the backroads trying to find their way to the next party. I realize this is a bit pejorative, but it cracks me up, nonetheless. The basic truth is that the Fed is somewhere in between and right now you can see it in their statements/comments. For all the data, PhD economists, I believe, have no clue of where the economic ant farm is headed. So, in the absence of clarity, they will stick to the dogma of raising rates and quantitative tightening. So, for now the stock market and bond market will focus on the Macros (interest rates, dollar strength, events, the Fed). Long term this will be a mistake because many companies are adapting and finding ways to thrive in this environment, but I understand the general negative tone of the market at this point. In this time the right focus should be on the 5 years plus time frame. At a time when people worry moment to moment the smarter money will become investors with a downstream time horizon. The question will be whether people take such a focus.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held Twin Gryphon Advisors, LLC. This is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. It is suggested that you consult your financial professional, attorney, or tax advisor with regard to your individual situation. Comments concerning the past performance are not intended to be forward-looking and should not be viewed as an indication of future results. Investment advisory services offered through Twin Gryphon Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor. The material is for informational purposes only. It represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. It does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. It should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. Neither the information presented, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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